Gold Technical Report: Gold prices for near-term technical outlook look more or less the same, with a correction likely in the offing amid overbought conditions on the daily chart, as indicated by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI). However, the next directional move in Gold price remains at the mercy of the US CPI data. A downside surprise in the US CPI numbers could propel Gold price toward the all-time high of $2,195, above which a sustained break above the $2,200 threshold is needed to take on the $2,250 psychological level. On the flip side, hot US inflation data is likely to extend the Gold price correction toward the March 8 low of $2,154. The next cushion is seen at $2,142, where the March 7 low and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the recent rally from the February 14 low of $1,984 to the all-time high of $2,195 coincide. The short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 91 (it is considered overbought when above 80 and oversold when below 20) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 82 (it is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30).
Silver Technical Report: Silver climbs modestly, registering gains of 0.60%, as XAG/USD trades at $24.46 after bottoming at around $24.24. It remains below last week’s high of $24.50. After hitting a low in the $24.20s range, Silver’s jumped toward the $24.33 area, though shy of cracking the $24.50 psychological figure. Even though Relative Strength Index (RSI) studies suggest further room for upside, buyers must break that area. Once cleared, up next would be the current year-to-date (YTD) high of $24.63, followed by the August 30 peak at $25.00. A decisive break would expose the December 4 high at $25.91.
Fundamental Report: The Gold prices maintains safe and stable as traders opt to wait on the sidelines and look to the latest US consumer inflation figures for more clues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut path before placing fresh directional bets around the non-yielding yellow metal. In the meantime, growing acceptance that the US central bank will cut its key interest rate at the June policy meeting leads to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and should act as a tailwind for the commodity. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, during his semi-annual congressional testimony last week, said that still-sticky inflation could prevent an early rate cut. Hence, a hotter US CPI print could allow the US central bank to signal fewer rate cuts this year and prompt some near-term selling around the Gold price. In contrast, a softer reading could fuel speculations about an early rate cut and provide a goodish lift to the XAU/USD. Nevertheless, the crucial data is likely to infuse volatility and produce short-term opportunities around the precious metal. The headline CPI is anticipated to edge higher to 0.4% in February and the yearly rate is expected to hold steady at 3.1%, while the Core CPI is seen easing to the 3.7% YoY rate from 3.9% previous. According to the CME group’s FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in an around 70% chance of a rate cut by June, which keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and lends support to the metal.