Gold Technical Report: Gold prices declined yesterday as it fell from intra day high of 1970 breaking below 50 days Exponential Moving Average @ 1965 and then also 10 days EMA @ 1955. Now nearest support is with a support at 100 days EMA@ 1936. Long term trend is still intact as the prices and all these averages are above 200 days EMA @ 1867. The short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 32 (it is considered overbought when above 80 and oversold when below 20) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44 (it is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30).
Silver Technical Report: The silver prices also declined yesterday flowing the suit and slipped below 50 days EMA @ 23.90 and also 10 days EMA @ 23.80. The medium term trend looks intact as all of these averages are above 200 days EMA @ 22.40. Some upside movement can be expected if 10 days EMA crosses above 50 days EMA. The Short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 63 and Relative Strength Index near 48.
Fundamental Report: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the CPI rose by 0.1% MoM in May and 4% from a year earlier, while the core annual CPI printed at 5.3% as expected, easing from the previous 5.5%. The figures support the case of a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed), with the central bank set to announce an update on monetary policy on Wednesday. After the dust settled, the CME Group FedWatch Tool now shows a 97.6% chance the central bank will keep rates unchanged this month. Spot Gold traded at daily lows near a daily low of $1,942, as optimism reigns following softer-than-anticipated US inflation figures. The US Dollar spent the first half of the day on the back foot, accelerating its decline as the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in below the market’s expectations while further easing from the record peak posed mid-2022. After this data now, markets price only a 10% probability that today’s rate decision in the US will be another hike – so if there is a hike, it will be a surprise. Attention will likely focus on the outlook for the July meeting, where the market is pricing a hike with 60% probability. A large minority of FOMC members have previously indicated that they expect a July hike, and there is a chance that this will now become a majority.