Gold Technical Report: The gold prices formed a DOJI candle yesterday. They have witnessed the downfall this week, to continue the last week’s selloff, halted very briefly intermittently for only 2 trading days. If prices do break above the main level of $1680, the medium-term trend will turn positive. The upside resistance is at 50 DMA near 1648 on Monthly charts and 50 DMA near 1695 on Daily charts. The short-term Stochastics Oscillator is at 7 and the Relative Strength Index is at 34.
Silver Technical Report: The silver prices are trying to stabilize for the last 4 days, and displaying rangebound movements. The next major support is only at 18.00, crossing below which will change the medium-term trend into negative. On the upside, a crossing of 200 DMA at 21.70 will change the main trend to positive. The Short term Stochastics Oscillator is at 42 and the RSI momentum is near 44.
Fundamental Report: The recent bearish market sentiment in gold has been the direct result of market participants having genuine concern about upcoming rate hikes of 75 basis points at the final two FOMC meetings this year in November and December. Comments made by multiple Federal Reserve officials have underscored their intent and focus on lowering inflation by raising interest rates. This has led to higher yields in U.S. debt instruments across-the-board including 10-year Notes and 30-year Treasury bonds. Yields have been steadily climbing to higher value and continue in trading today. The yield of the 10-year Note gained 2.4% today and is currently yielding 4.226%. Yields on 30-year bonds increased by 2.18% and are currently yielding 4.216%. There continues to be an inverted yield between 10-year Notes and 30-year Bonds with the 10-year Note having slightly higher yields than the longer-term debt instrument. This is an indication that investors and traders perceive current yield levels as higher than they will be years down the road.
In an exclusive interview with Kathleen Hays of Bloomberg News today Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard reinforced the resolve of the Federal Reserve to continue their aggressive rate hikes to curb high inflation. James Bullard said that it is good news that markets are pricing in anticipated interest rate hikes, making it important that officials “follow through” and implement those increases to curb high inflation. He said that the Federal Reserve has continued to be surprised that inflationary pressures continue to grow confirming that the goal of the Federal Reserve is to get their fed funds rate closer to 4.5% or 4.75%. Bullard said that a 75-basis point rate hike at the November FOMC meeting “has been more or less priced into markets”. However, he added that he’d prefer to wait until the meeting to decide his preference for the size of the hike. He did not confirm that a November 75-basis point rate hike would be followed by an additional 75- basis point rate hike in December saying that he didn’t want to “prejudge” what he would support at the December meeting. Amongst Federal Reserve officials James Bullard is considered to be one of the most hawkish officials. He was the first Federal Reserve President to publicly suggest rate hikes of 75 basis points. In the interview, he said that the CPI core rose to 6.6% in September year over year and that continues to be a worrisome pattern. These statements reinforced that the market sentiment yields in government debt will continue to rise.